Don’t bet a rain check from this warm weather — the 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a stormy summer and warm fall in Austin.
Austinites can expect a steady chance of thunderstorms (and even tropical storms) from now until Saturday, Sept. 24, when the almanac predicts a shift to weather warmer than average for October. The almanac has conflicting reports for chances of below average or above average precipitation in fall.
How accurate is that forecast? Using a formula developed in the late 1700s, the almanac claims to be accurate 80% of the time. A 2010 University of Illinois study showed it has ~50% overall accuracy, so let’s compare to the National Weather Service.
The NWS predicts a 50%-60% probability that weather will be hotter than average from September to November, so keep your sunscreen handy. As for precipitation, there’s a 33%-40% chance the same time frame will have less precipitation on the horizon.
