Austin is in store for a warm, wet fall

According to climate prediction outlooks released by NOAA this week, Austin’s fall will be temperate and rainy.

The Austin skyline

We don’t know about you, but we’re ready for some cloudy days.

Photo by @armandososaa

It’s about time.

The weather in Austin is finally holding below 100º, with even a few high temperatures in the 80s expected this week. We feel spoiled.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released its newest seasonal climate outlook — here’s what the next three months may look like in ATX.


According to NOAA, Central Texas is likely to see above-average temperatures in October, November, and December,

Graphic via NOAA

Probability for a warmer, wetter fall

The NOAA forecast delineates a slightly higher probability — between 33% and 40% — of warmer temperatures this October, November, and December.

During that time frame, the researchers also predict higher precipitation than average.

The much-needed rain may help combat the drought still plaguing Central Texas. As of most recent data, Travis County was under D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions, the highest categorization. NOAA predicts the drought will remain, but improve, by the end of December.

As a refresher, here’s what fall months typically look like in Austin:

A graphic showing Central Texas is 33-40% more likely to have a rainier fall season.

Austin may see a rainier fall, according to predictions from NOAA.

Grpahic via NOAA

An early look at winter

Although it is subject to change, NOAA also released predictions for the winter months. Researchers forecast mostly average temperatures through February, with higher-than-average precipitation.

Recovering from the hottest summer in history

This summer was the hottest on record in Austin, with:

  • An average temperature of 89.4º at Camp Mabry (including lows and highs)
  • Rainfall: 1.3 inches, ~15% of normal summer rainfall

We hope we’re not jinxing it, but it looks like we may be done with the 100º days until 2024.

With a total of 78 triple digit days recorded in 2023, the winner of our 100º day guessing game is reader Teresa H., who was right on the money. (Honorable mentions to Kristen H., who had our next closest guess at 77.)

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