With the first 100º day of the year perilously close (remember to hydrate and put on sunscreen, everybody), now might be a good time to go over the forecast for the season.
Between the approaching El Niño phenomenon and an earlier-than-average triple-digit day, here’s what to expect this summer in Austin.
First off — 100º already?
The forecast currently calls for a high of 100º this Sunday, June 11. Although it might not seem like it due to recent summers, this is actually earlier than average
for ATX.
- Average first 100º day: July 9
- Earliest recorded first 100º day: May 4, 1984
- First 100º in 2022: May 21
So, will it be hot or not?
As much as we like to talk about it, the first triple-digit day is just one of several factors that determine the seasonal outlook.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a hotter-than-average summer for the southern US. The Central Texas region has a 50-60% chance of warmer temperatures through August, with normal rain conditions.
NOAA climatologists predict a hotter-than-average summer in Austin this year.
Graphic via NOAA
But, you might be wondering, what about El Niño? You’d be right to ask.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern based on cyclical trade winds and warm water in the Pacific Ocean. During El Niño — which takes place every 3-5 years and lasts roughly one year — wetter, cooler weather often sweeps through the southern US.
El Niño conditions are currently present , but the pattern is still developing. Austinites might not see most of its cooling effects until winter.
That said, even with hotter-than-average temperatures, this summer will probably not bring record-breaking heat like last year . The hottest summers in Texas almost always take place during La Niña , El Niño’s opposite twin.
Long story short: It’ll be hot this summer, but we’ll make it through.